During a speech to a partisan crowd after his recent loss in the first stage of the French presidential race, Sarkozy proposed three debates between himself and Socialist challenger François Hollande. The occasion in itself was a little odd. A casual viewer tuning in might have mistakenly thought Sarkozy was celebrating a victory rather than a loss. He is in fact the only outgoing president not to lead after the first round of a presidential election.
Hollande, who placed first in round one, has turned down Sarkozy's offer. As the winner in round one why should Hollande allow Sarko to dictate the terms and do what he loves... bloviate for the cameras. One of the issues in this campaign is Sarkozy's overblown personality. He has turned off a lot of French voters who in addition to disappointment with broken promises and empty rhetoric, view his style as anything-but presidential. Simply put many voters are sick and tired of Sarkozy and his posturing.
A Sarkozy spokesperson, Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet, said that Hollande was "scared" to go against the president in three debates. The Hollande team was quick to react.
Guardian:
Hollande's team responded by saying Sarkozy's offer was a childish "whim" and an attempt at manipulation. His spokesman, Pierre Moscovici, said Hollande refused to be dictated to by a man who would go down in history as the only outgoing president not to lead after the first-round vote.
Muscovi also said:
Just because he's got a bad result he now wants three debates. It's the whim of a naughty pupil, someone who didn't get the score he expected. He never wanted that before. And he's trying to make out François Hollande is afraid. The debate – there will be one of them – will be a big debate and we hope it will answer the questions that concern the French... We're not going to take any lessons from Nicolas Sarkozy. He has no credibility. He's not in a position to impose anything on François Hollande.
Bar some miraculous alignment of electoral fortunes it looks as though Sarko is on the way out. In more basic terms he needs about 80% of Le Pen's voters. However there is a limit on how far he can go in wooing Front National voters without alienating the center. Anyway many FN voters are so turned off by President Bling Bling they will likely abstain or even vote Socialist. On paper at least 27% of FN voters have said they will vote for Hollande in round two.
Sarkozy has been making a pitch to the far-right, promising a get-tough approach. It's pathetic that he is prepared to pander to the hate, anger and alienation represented by the Front National surge, but not surprising. Sarkozy is all about opportunism, especially when it comes to securing the edge on anything that touches on his ego.
He also needs to try and keep Bayrou's centrists in play. Good luck with that. A majority of centrists have more sympathy for Hollande - some 40% - than Sarkozy. Only around 25% have said they will vote for Sarkozy. So his options are limited going into round two.
By contrast most of the 15.1% of voters who backed other left-wing parties will get solidly behind Hollande. If you pool the contenders overall likely support base, Hollande's percentages are significantly higher than Sarkozy`s. One analyst indicates the breakdown would be around 36% for Sarkozy and 42% for Hollande.

























